A Family-Owned Luxury Catamaran Builder Delivering 10-Year Revenue CAGR of 20%, EPS Growth of 38%, and Trading at Only 4.5x P/E—Combining Dividends, Buybacks, and Long-Term Value
Just one question here, between now and 2030 the family wishes to invest €130 million in expansion capex. This will hit free cashflow hard for the next years. You are not afraid this stock will be dead money until then?
Looks like it's going to be productive viewing the ROCE, but the stock market does not want to wait years for free cashflow, or well...return on that investment.
Well in a way true, but if Catana is dead money until 2030 you lose return on an alternative investment you could have done. It's my biggest lesson from Proximus that I bought before a big capex round (FIBER) that will last from 2018-2028. After 2028 capex should slowly reduce to 50% of the 2023 level. For the next decades..so big uplift but still dead money until 2028
if they double in 5 years in real terms, that means 15%, and anything more than that is a cherry on the cake, I'm good with 15% per even in nominal terms with these inflation levels
Great job! One of the best deep dives I have ever seen. Now, the stock seems even more interesting with their ambitious 2030 roadmap and the share price being even lower after softer H1 results .
You're welcome! Looking forward to your feedback—or even a post about the stock or industry. My main goal here is to discover fresh ideas and have mine challenged!
A very in depth analysis, thank you for taking the time to write it. Catana has only just popped on my radar, I suppose as it hit new lows.
If you don't mind, I had a question about their 2030 roadmap. They mention 130M of investments, "mostly financed by the Poncin family". I am working with translated documents, so not sure if anything is getting lost in translation. Do you have any grasp on how much of the investment is expected to be debt financed by shareholders, as opposed to the investment being made by other companies/holdings owned by the family?
It’s impressive how much information about this Catana small cap company you have provided, is that from their FY report or any outside audit? Doing that much writing on your own would not be worth at all as the industry is neither trendy nor attractive for investors and price as it was falling probably it will continue to do so, maybe sideways
Yes, the information I've provided is primarily sourced from the fiscal year report, supplemented with online research, with links to the sources included.
I seek quality businesses at reasonable prices, often found in less trendy sectors. In my view, price estimates are often unreliable, as market prices fluctuate based on numerous factors. Therefore, I focus on a company's long-term success, believing that if I acquire a good business at a reasonable price, its market value will eventually reflect its true worth.
Excellent analysis dude, well done!
Just one question here, between now and 2030 the family wishes to invest €130 million in expansion capex. This will hit free cashflow hard for the next years. You are not afraid this stock will be dead money until then?
Not if that capex is productive, but that is a risk indeed.
Looks like it's going to be productive viewing the ROCE, but the stock market does not want to wait years for free cashflow, or well...return on that investment.
I've made that mistake with Proximus...
Well, I'm ready to wait multiple years. I think it as real estate, when you buy a house you don't check its price everyday.
Proximus looks like interesting, if you have an investment pitch I would like to hear.
Well in a way true, but if Catana is dead money until 2030 you lose return on an alternative investment you could have done. It's my biggest lesson from Proximus that I bought before a big capex round (FIBER) that will last from 2018-2028. After 2028 capex should slowly reduce to 50% of the 2023 level. For the next decades..so big uplift but still dead money until 2028
if they double in 5 years in real terms, that means 15%, and anything more than that is a cherry on the cake, I'm good with 15% per even in nominal terms with these inflation levels
Great job! One of the best deep dives I have ever seen. Now, the stock seems even more interesting with their ambitious 2030 roadmap and the share price being even lower after softer H1 results .
My only concern is if Poncin Family Group can somehow act against the interests of the public shareholders
Holy smokes, that is an in depth analysis if i ever have seen one.
You're welcome, I'm glad that you have liked it.
I had a position in grand banks and did well. Looks like another good play
I hope so :)
I really enjoyed this deep dive Moat Mind!
Thanks, I'm glad to hear that!
Interesting idea, thanks!
You're welcome! Looking forward to your feedback—or even a post about the stock or industry. My main goal here is to discover fresh ideas and have mine challenged!
A very in depth analysis, thank you for taking the time to write it. Catana has only just popped on my radar, I suppose as it hit new lows.
If you don't mind, I had a question about their 2030 roadmap. They mention 130M of investments, "mostly financed by the Poncin family". I am working with translated documents, so not sure if anything is getting lost in translation. Do you have any grasp on how much of the investment is expected to be debt financed by shareholders, as opposed to the investment being made by other companies/holdings owned by the family?
It’s impressive how much information about this Catana small cap company you have provided, is that from their FY report or any outside audit? Doing that much writing on your own would not be worth at all as the industry is neither trendy nor attractive for investors and price as it was falling probably it will continue to do so, maybe sideways
Yes, the information I've provided is primarily sourced from the fiscal year report, supplemented with online research, with links to the sources included.
I seek quality businesses at reasonable prices, often found in less trendy sectors. In my view, price estimates are often unreliable, as market prices fluctuate based on numerous factors. Therefore, I focus on a company's long-term success, believing that if I acquire a good business at a reasonable price, its market value will eventually reflect its true worth.