Thank you for this post! Just a quick question though. Wouldn't an inverse DCF that backs into the current share price (by using a discount rate assumption to determine what level of growth, margins, etc are being priced into the stock) be an even better alternative to the IRR method?
I ask this because I feel like with the IRR method, you still run into the problem of forecasting all the assumptions that feed into a FCF calculation.
Thank you for your question. Inverse DCF is popular, but it ultimately gives you a binary answer: you back-solve for the implied growth rate and then decide if that single number feels realistic. All the other inputs—discount rate, margins, reinvestment needs—are still assumptions; you’ve just frozen growth into one fixed hurdle.
I lean on an IRR framework instead. IRR lets me model different growth trajectories year by year, spits out a comparable return metric for every stock, and makes portfolio construction far more systematic—exactly the process I walked through here:
You make some great points. I've been using the reverse DCF for some months now and also been constantly trying to tweak and improve my valuation process.
The post contains a Google Sheets link where you can experiment with various parameters. Additionally, you can utilize the Goal Seek extension to calculate the IRR.
Thanks for sharing, great article! However, I don't find the gsheet you are referring to. Can you share the link once more here in the comments please? ☺️
Ohh, sorry about that, I confused this article with the stock analyses. I'm sharing two concrete articles, you can find links there. I also plan to write another article to calculate cash flows and how to use the model. Let me know if you still can't find the links.
Thank you for this post! Just a quick question though. Wouldn't an inverse DCF that backs into the current share price (by using a discount rate assumption to determine what level of growth, margins, etc are being priced into the stock) be an even better alternative to the IRR method?
I ask this because I feel like with the IRR method, you still run into the problem of forecasting all the assumptions that feed into a FCF calculation.
Thank you for your question. Inverse DCF is popular, but it ultimately gives you a binary answer: you back-solve for the implied growth rate and then decide if that single number feels realistic. All the other inputs—discount rate, margins, reinvestment needs—are still assumptions; you’ve just frozen growth into one fixed hurdle.
I lean on an IRR framework instead. IRR lets me model different growth trajectories year by year, spits out a comparable return metric for every stock, and makes portfolio construction far more systematic—exactly the process I walked through here:
https://www.moatmind.com/p/using-irr-to-build-better-portfolios
Ahh. That makes sense. Thank you!
Found the google sheets! Thanks for your quick reply and keep up the great work 🙌
Thank you for the insights, IRR seems to get around at least some of the wrong assumptions of the DCF.
Great to hear that you liked it! IRR helps sidestep some of the rigid assumptions of DCF, particularly around discount rates.
You make some great points. I've been using the reverse DCF for some months now and also been constantly trying to tweak and improve my valuation process.
Great read, thank you!
Glad you enjoyed the read, and appreciate the feedback! Would love to hear how your process evolves.
This is a very persuasive article that holds a lot of value. I really may begin using this method more.
Great to hear that you liked it!
This hidden microcap has a moat!
https://open.substack.com/pub/johnlawxv/p/the-best-smallcap-in-eu-is-hiding?r=31luz&utm_medium=ios
This is what expectations investing states. How do u do this? On excel or?
The post contains a Google Sheets link where you can experiment with various parameters. Additionally, you can utilize the Goal Seek extension to calculate the IRR.
Thanks for sharing, great article! However, I don't find the gsheet you are referring to. Can you share the link once more here in the comments please? ☺️
Ohh, sorry about that, I confused this article with the stock analyses. I'm sharing two concrete articles, you can find links there. I also plan to write another article to calculate cash flows and how to use the model. Let me know if you still can't find the links.
https://www.moatmind.com/i/158499833/methodology-and-google-sheets-model
https://www.moatmind.com/i/157959047/model-assumptions-and-methodology-google-sheets-model